(03-10-2025, 06:23 PM)Nintex wrote: The big thing they're trying to accomplish is to move production and investment back to the US. They're basically trying to take on China by offering incentives to US (and foreign) companies to produce and sell their goods in the US and punish those that don't. Mostly because the old model of USAID and foreign investment tied to political reform doesn't really work anymore. It was always assumed that post WW2 the main economic driver was democracy and that capitalist countries would ultimately have to become democracies to avoid collapse but China changed that.Typical Nintex Nonsense.
Basically what Apple has been doing, control everything in the supply chain, from materials and parts to production and delivery but applied to the whole US economy.
Countries like the US and China have such wealth in resources, knowledge and manpower that they can do that. When TSMC moves to the United States that $375 billion profit will be stored, taxed and ultimately invested in the United States.
What they fail to realize though and what I've predicted before is that in this calculus Europe ultimately wins. When we are no longer 'forced' to buy from the US, be it software, planes or ammo. We can buy whatever is cheapest or best. When the US can no longer dictate what we sell or to who, we can sell more to China, India etc. .
China didn't change anything, they massively democratized. Xi's reaction is due to it undermining the CCP. And that reaction has harmed Chinese economic interests which is why he sounds like a Chinese Trump half the time since they equally don't understand capitalism.
Autarky is immense stupidity. It makes sense for a company to control their entire supply chain, it doesn't make any sense for a country to because economies don't operate like corporations. They operate completely inversely to one.
Which is also why your last paragraph continues the stupidity. Stop being like Trump and Xi and thinking mercantilism is a thing. Read Adam fucking Smith dude. The law of comparative advantage has not been repealed. The rising of Europe (which was half divided and wrecked by war), China, India and the Global South has only boosted the United States not reduced it and this was entirely foreseeable. Europe could not be remotely stupid enough to cut off the United States in order to try and replace it with itself or China. This is aside from the fact that European investment in Asia piggy-backs off of America far more than American investment in Europe does. China's entire economy is dependent on the United States, that's the only reason Trump has any leverage at all in his stupidity. Neither Europe nor the United States has reason to do that with the other just because they'll come to disagreements about things. That's been the story of the entire post-war period, it's the entire reason we have things like the WTO, EU, etc. Trump withdrawing from them isn't going to collapse the institutional knowledge and systems they led to for the same reason the US could withdraw from the UN and it wouldn't appreciably effect international decision making. European and American corporations are integrated not because of state policy, if anything the nations have been mostly against this, France has probably defended against more American takeover bids than anybody else in the world but the Germans have been almost inversely interested in integrating their economy with the US and UK (and France) to the point of allowing significant foreign control. (In part because so many German companies desired to build conglomerates by buying up depreciated English-speaking assets.) And then there's Japan and the rest of the Asian Tigers.
It was like two years ago you were mocking Europe for relying on Russian coal, oil and gas and now you're talking about dumping the world's most advanced economy even though your favorite guy is now trying to ruin it by following what you think is the ideal economic policy.
(03-11-2025, 12:28 AM)Nintex wrote: There also seems to be little support to annex Canada, Gaza and Greenland.Wow, you think?
I also think there's way too much soothsaying in this thread focused on stock fluctuations. Even though the markets have been decorrelated from the economy in the 21st Century more than probably the rest of their existences combined. It's like we've forgotten the entire post Great Recession into ZIRP period already. That's aside from the fact that Trump's targets should reflect more in other markets, not stocks. And assets being dumped should be accruing somewhere else. Plus how much trading is automated yet everyone continues to insist it's based on deep human reasoning about complex topics nobody remotely understands.
Relatedly, I'm tired after a decade of people who think Trump has an attention span and a willingness to stick to anything. I have no clue how so many millions want to make him the avatar of their delusions. Especially the delusions they've held and willingly told everyone about for years absent him yet now insist is his deliberate ideological faith. As he repeats tweeting about whatever he's just seen on Fox.
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