07-01-2024, 07:06 PM
https://www.resetera.com/threads/is-anyone-mentally-preparing-for-a-possible-trump-win.909036/page-10?post=125113698#post-125113698
Blitzpwnage, post: 125113698, member: 39806 wrote:Nah. I think Biden is gonna win. And I think he is going to win by more than 2020. Here is why:
- Republican defection: from voting MAGA. I believe it has increased since 2020
- COVID: It killed a lot of people, but it killed more right wing people and they loved to espoused their narrative that it was a simple virus
- Boomers dying: it's just very simple. Lots of boomers have died in the last 4 years. That coupled with the COVID numbers then it's even more. They are his main voting block
- Disenfranchisement bites them: they have been saying the whole thing is rigged. They have been touting that mail in voting is rigged, don't vote early etc. I think this will hurt the right more
- Trumps Felony conviction: I think this will have more sway than we think. I don't believe polling for a second on some of this stuff. Seeing how these polls are conducted I have very little confidence in them. (The methodology. If you want to know more please ask and I will explain I just have a really long list here)
- Historical Precedent: what elections has a trump back candidate won that was predicted to be a red wave? 2018, 2020, 2022. All were supposed to go to republicans, ESPECIALLY 2022, but it wasn't a red wave it was a trickle. Fuck they lost the god damn senate lmao
- Abortion: this is still a motivating topic. It's real, it's very motivating and I believe it will be a very important aspect of this voting cycle.
- My Parents: both Trump voters in 2016, and 2022. Neither of them are voting for Trump because he has become too insane for them. It's broke them politically and even disenfranchised my mother who went to a MAGA rally and has a fucking MAGA hat. She said she is checked out of politics and not voting anymore.
Those are just a few points as to why I think Biden will win. I get it, we as a collective do not want to see Trump win. It's terrifying, I'm scared as fuck. But I truly do believe because of all these factors he will not.