I've watched this and it's become clear, from where I sit, observing my own and others business, that nobody has a clue how tariffs or a tariff war plays out. So everyone is just nervous. When nervous, you bet towards safety, I suppose.
But I get no sense from anyone that they understand the tariff angle. They're just scared of it because they can't predict it.
02-04-2025, 03:45 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2025, 03:50 AM by Potato.)
(02-04-2025, 03:38 AM)God Emperor Etiolate wrote: I've watched this and it's become clear, from where I sit, observing my own and others business, that nobody has a clue how tariffs or a tariff war plays out. So everyone is just nervous. When nervous, you bet towards safety, I suppose.
But I get no sense from anyone that they understand the tariff angle. They're just scared of it because they can't predict it.
People, in fact, do have a clue how tariff war plays out.
https://www.ussc.edu.au/chinas-trade-restrictions-on-australian-exports
Quote:China’s trade restrictions against Australia were relatively unsuccessful as many Australian exporters found new markets. They may have even backfired, encouraging market diversification in some industries. China is also reliant on certain Australian commodities for its own industries, including iron ore, LNG and wool, so any restrictions on those products would reverberate back on China.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Smoot-Hawley-Tariff-Act
Quote:Smoot-Hawley contributed to the early loss of confidence on Wall Street and signaled U.S. isolationism. By raising the average tariff by some 20 percent, it also prompted retaliation from foreign governments, and many overseas banks began to fail. (Because the legislation set both specific and ad valorem tariff rates [i.e., rates based on the value of the product], determining the precise percentage increase in tariff levels is difficult and a subject of debate among economists.) Within two years some two dozen countries adopted similar “beggar-thy-neighbour” duties, making worse an already beleaguered world economy and reducing global trade. U.S. imports from and exports to Europe fell by some two-thirds between 1929 and 1932, while overall global trade declined by similar levels in the four years that the legislation was in effect.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7255316/#:~:text=The%20wasteful%20effects%20of%20protectionism,marginally%2Dsignificant%20increase%20in%20unemployment.
Quote:Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries
The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.
They really don't know. Watch the markets. If they had confidence then it wouldn't be like this. Consumers don't know either.
Tariffs are like a horseless carriage to people.
Tariffs are obviously bad, it's just that lots of people believe that socialism works because they think being popular makes you a god.
(02-04-2025, 04:09 AM)God Emperor Etiolate wrote: They really don't know. Watch the markets. If they had confidence then it wouldn't be like this. Consumers don't know either.
Tariffs are like a horseless carriage to people.
Oh, so when you say "they" you mean the gormless masses without even a basic understanding of economics...people like Trump.
Economists do know and the US government knows as evidenced by the first link. Historians know too because they understand that the world has always suffered when protectionism has been popular and has advanced when free trade is encouraged.
02-04-2025, 11:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2025, 11:54 AM by Nintex.)
I will get back to your questions shortly. Meanwhile these are the guys in the DOGE trenches fighting the deep state
Donald this is wrong you can't weaponize autism against us
 he's a genius, he loves all the numbers. He goes through those records like his personal vietnam
If Elon really has broccoli haired gen z coders tinkering with our ancient treasury payment systems it could end really badly. Like, if they break something it's possible no one will know how to fix it. No one knows the ins and outs of those systems anymore. Owning the libs is fun and all, but grandma might die if they break the SSI EFTs. She better stock up on dogfood while she can I guess.
1 user liked this post: Alpacx
Not to Elonpost, but if the system is so ancient and outdated that no living human can fix it if it breaks, isn't it sort of counterintuitively sensible to do something like this?
Like, leaving it to become increasingly ancient until it's written in the digital equivalent of a lost language seems (potentially) more bad.
See, what the problem is here is that people are taking fuckface's claim of the system seriously.
It's the same shit he did on twitter when he said "lets rewrite the whole stack".
(02-04-2025, 04:18 PM)DavidCroquet wrote: Not to Elonpost, but if the system is so ancient and outdated that no living human can fix it if it breaks, isn't it sort of counterintuitively sensible to do something like this?
Like, leaving it to become increasingly ancient until it's written in the digital equivalent of a lost language seems (potentially) more bad.
That's true, but I feel like having Elon be the one to replace this old system is a really bad idea. He'll have us getting our SSI payments via the X app (for verified users only). We'll be applying for disability via Grok virtual assistant. I'd rather have the 1970s DOS payment system running off floppy discs than something these gen z tech bros cooked up.
The NTSB already announced that all updates would only go out through x regarding the recent plane crashes.
so
(02-04-2025, 02:31 PM)EaldNarche wrote: If Elon really has broccoli haired gen z coders tinkering with our ancient treasury payment systems it could end really badly. Like, if they break something it's possible no one will know how to fix it. No one knows the ins and outs of those systems anymore. Owning the libs is fun and all, but grandma might die if they break the SSI EFTs. She better stock up on dogfood while she can I guess.

"No one told us dealing with legacy systems could be so complicated..."
(02-04-2025, 02:31 PM)EaldNarche wrote: If Elon really has broccoli haired gen z coders tinkering with our ancient treasury payment systems it could end really badly. Like, if they break something it's possible no one will know how to fix it. No one knows the ins and outs of those systems anymore. Owning the libs is fun and all, but grandma might die if they break the SSI EFTs. She better stock up on dogfood while she can I guess.

Hey. Putting inexperienced young people in high positions of power is a feature of the us government, not a bug.
(02-04-2025, 06:42 PM)TylenolJones wrote: (02-04-2025, 02:31 PM)EaldNarche wrote: If Elon really has broccoli haired gen z coders tinkering with our ancient treasury payment systems it could end really badly. Like, if they break something it's possible no one will know how to fix it. No one knows the ins and outs of those systems anymore. Owning the libs is fun and all, but grandma might die if they break the SSI EFTs. She better stock up on dogfood while she can I guess.

Hey. Putting inexperienced young people in high positions of power is a feature of the us government, not a bug.
Excellent movie, though weird watching this scene again while knowing that so damn many of those holding high positions in the government are old and decrepit mummies not caring a whit of the havoc they wreak in their wake  .
1 user liked this post: Nintex
To answer why I support MAGA/MEGA, I can dig up my earlier post:
While I was always interested in history and politics there was a time when I could just ignore it and even voted pro-EU/liberal but then the Climate cult doomerism, Obama, the Arab spring, woke shit, DEI and #BLM made it across the pond and that stuck around. That self flagellation really hit a chord with uppity librul European white people who block anything remotely sensible to see who can virtue signal the hardest.
The feminization of society is also an issue. First: rubber tiles under trees so people that climb into trees don't get hurt, next don't climb trees, followed by fences around trees, until finally all trees are removed in case someone decides to climb one. And liberalism has been at the 'remove all trees' stage at least since COVID and even before then. It's literally happening right now with knives in the UK.
Trump is the cure to all that and the only guy that sticks to his guns. When push comes to shove even Wilders doesn't stand his ground, while in theory he is much further to the right than any Republican. But no housing is being built because of nitrogen levels or some shit and no migrants are being deported because of some UN or EU treaty or whatever. These people are so fucking stupid, Mutti Merkel opened the European borders in the middle of a Zerg rush and funded Russias armies.
But I'm positive now, while a Trump supporter I'm not big on all things related to conservatism and some positions of the GOP like on abortion are just boomer nonsense, so with e/acc I finally found the gang and ideology I truely belong to and with AI we can create the tech utopia of our dreams.
Sure it's a big risk but if the current crop Democrats were in charge they would've never done D-Day or the Apollo missions. While Trump would have supported such bold plans (and likely demanded they'd be even more ambitious).
Omg Nintex, you don't even live here!! You're basically just larping as a trump supporter from across the pond.
I mean, you're entitled to that, but you don't actually have to deal with the fallout of anything Trump does. Unless he starts a trade war with the EU or something. Must be nice, I'd probably think Trump was fun too if I wasn't a US citizen either.
1 user liked this post: Potato
02-04-2025, 09:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2025, 09:52 PM by benji.)
(02-04-2025, 02:31 PM)EaldNarche wrote: If Elon really has broccoli haired gen z coders tinkering with our ancient treasury payment systems it could end really badly. Like, if they break something it's possible no one will know how to fix it. No one knows the ins and outs of those systems anymore. Owning the libs is fun and all, but grandma might die if they break the SSI EFTs. She better stock up on dogfood while she can I guess.
 (02-04-2025, 04:18 PM)DavidCroquet wrote: Not to Elonpost, but if the system is so ancient and outdated that no living human can fix it if it breaks, isn't it sort of counterintuitively sensible to do something like this?
Like, leaving it to become increasingly ancient until it's written in the digital equivalent of a lost language seems (potentially) more bad.
Spoiler: (click to show)(click to hide)
(02-04-2025, 07:33 PM)Nintex wrote: Trump is the cure to all that and the only guy that sticks to his guns.  Dude really believes this even after the first four years.
The number of systems running in DOS in big government organisations would surprise some of you...
02-04-2025, 10:30 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2025, 10:31 PM by killamajig.)
I'm hoping it's just some broccoli head fucking with the dos at our Country courthouse today. I had an appointment with one of them and they told me the computers was were down for everyone there. Couldn't even reschedule me because the computers were down
(02-04-2025, 10:19 PM)Potato wrote: The number of systems running in DOS in big government organisations would surprise some of you...
it is in fact possibly the most secure way to run your systems
no viruses
proprietary/custom networking (if any at all)
if anyone gains access to it, good luck figuring out how to use it or compromise it, you probably don't even have a floppy to get data off of it
02-04-2025, 11:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2025, 11:20 PM by Nintex.)
Whoever said: "The pen is mightier than the sword" never took in consideration a sharpie
(02-04-2025, 11:03 PM)Uncle wrote: (02-04-2025, 10:19 PM)Potato wrote: The number of systems running in DOS in big government organisations would surprise some of you...
it is in fact possibly the most secure way to run your systems
no viruses
proprietary/custom networking (if any at all)
if anyone gains access to it, good luck figuring out how to use it or compromise it, you probably don't even have a floppy to get data off of it
Yes, but...
02-05-2025, 12:24 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2025, 01:06 AM by Potato.)
(02-04-2025, 11:19 PM)Nintex wrote:
Once again exhibiting a complete lack of understanding of people and the geopolitical situation on the ground.
Once again exhibiting his complete lack of interest or understanding of anything outside of his real estate paradigm, which is the only thing he's ever known.
Once again exhibiting his complete lack of qualification or interest in the actual job of being president outside of furthering his own real estate business.
Utterly contemptible cunt.
Politico wrote:Trump says US will "take over the Gaza Strip."
He provided no details on how this was possible.
lmao what is going on
1 user liked this post: Nintex
People in Europe are going to be shocked when they wake up tommorow. Not to mention the Muslims.
I wonder if this will unravel that whole cult, because who can believe in Allah when 76 years of Martyrdom ends with the Trump Riviera Resort.
When you say "cult" you mean Maga idiots, right?
(02-05-2025, 12:55 AM)Nintex wrote: People in Europe are going to be shocked when they wake up tommorow. Not to mention the Muslims.
I wonder if this will unravel that whole cult, because who can believe in Allah when 76 years of Martyrdom ends with the Trump Riviera Resort.  Islam's had far larger setbacks.
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